Introduction and Objective: This study analyzes trends in Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in China from 1990 to 2021, with projections through 2036.Methods: Data from the GBD 2021 study were used to calculate annual changes in age-standardized rates (ASRs) for T1DM via joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort analysis assessed age, period, and cohort effects, while decomposition analysis examined demographic and epidemiological factors. Bayesian modeling projected trends to 2036.Results: From 1990 to 2021, new T1DM cases in China rose from 22,722 to 32,058, with age-standardized incidence increasing by 1.16% annually. Prevalence doubled to 1,442,775, with a 1.15% annual rise. Mortality fell from 5,732 to 3,960, and DALYs dropped from 328,727 to 248,596. The highest incidence was in children aged 5-9, while prevalence peaked in older adults. Males had a higher disease burden, with a narrowing gender gap in mortality and DALYs. Decomposition analysis showed that epidemiological factors were key drivers. Projections indicate continued increases in incidence and prevalence, especially among males, through 2036.Conclusion: T1DM burden has increased over the past three decades, especially among older adults and males, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions and improved healthcare infrastructure.
Z. Li: None. R. Duan: None. X. Chen: None. J. Li: None. W. Ren: None. X. Li: None. X. Fan: None. P. Yang: None. D. Yan: None. C. Wang: None. S. Liu: None.
Key Laboratory Construction Plan Project of Shanxi Province (202404010920011); Fundamental Research Program of Shanxi Province (202303021212330); Science and Technology Achievements Transformation and Guidance Special Program Project of Shanxi Province (202304021301066); Scientific Research Funding Project for Returned Overseas Scholars of Shanxi Province (2024-143); Special Program for Science and Technology Innovation Talent Teams of Shanxi Province (202204251002029); Metabolic Disease (Type 1 Diabetes) Clinical Medical Research Center Construction Project of Shanxi Province (20240410501001); National Key Technology Research and Development Program on Prevention and Treatment of Cancer, Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases, Respiratory Diseases, and Metabolic Diseases (2023ZD0507302); Research and Innovation Team Project for Scientific Breakthroughs at Shanxi Bethune Hospital (2024AOXIANG03)
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