Introduction and Objective: A recent trial of tirzepatide (SURMOUNT) found a 92% reduction of diabetes incidence among patients with overweight or obesity over three years. Our objective was to estimate the potential population, outcomes, and cost associated with use of tirzepatide for the primary prevention of DM.Methods: Data from the 2021-2023 cycle of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were used to estimate risk reductions for the incidence of DM extrapolated from SURMOUNT results. Costs and savings (from saved diabetes care costs) of tirzepatide were estimated under current U.S. list prices, direct to patient prices, and UK list prices.Results: In total, 2,022 NHANES participants were eligible for tirzepatide therapy (51% female, 49% male, median age 53, IQR 37-66) translating to a weighted U.S. population estimate of 83,454,492 (95% CI 74,423,832 – 92,485,151). Across the lifespan, 30,522,710 cases of diabetes could be prevented if risk reduction was persistent. Projected costs/savings are shown in Table 1.Conclusion: Nearly one in three Americans are potentially eligible for tirzepatide for the primary prevention of DM. At current list price, treating the entire population could cost nearly 20 trillion dollars, offset by only 3.4 trillion dollars of savings, yielding a net cost of approximately 16 trillion dollars, or 60% of 2023 US gross domestic product; treatment at the UK list price would result in nearly 500 billion in net savings.
J.B. Lusk: None. S. Aymes: None. E. OBrien: Research Support; Pfizer Inc. F. Li: None.
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